Oil Markets Refuse to Calm as Middle East Violence Overshadows Reserve Release

A record release of emergency crude from the world’s largest oil-consuming nations failed to permanently pacify energy markets Thursday as fresh Iranian strikes kept Brent crude trading near $100 a barrel. The International Energy Agency’s intervention — the largest in its history — was quickly overshadowed by continued attacks on merchant shipping, oil export facilities, and fuel storage sites across the Gulf. The situation is evolving faster than policy responses can manage.
Iranian forces struck the Thai-flagged Mayuree Naree near the Strait of Hormuz, trapping three crew members. Iraq shut all oil ports, and Bahrain ordered shelter-in-place measures after fuel tanks in Muharraq Governorate were attacked. Oman cleared its Mina Al Fahal terminal — a critical remaining export point — following drone strikes on a nearby facility.
Brent crude rose 9% intraday to $100.29 before settling around $98. West Texas Intermediate gained 8.6% to $94.75 a barrel. The benchmarks have surged from approximately $60 a barrel at the start of the year, with oil hitting $119 earlier in the week before partially retreating on conflicting signals from Washington.
The IEA’s 32 member nations released a combined 400 million barrels of emergency oil — a record coordinated action. The US government separately announced a 172-million-barrel release from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve to begin the following week. President Trump said the release would meaningfully lower prices as the military operation against Iran proceeds.
Goldman Sachs lifted its Q4 2026 Brent forecast to $71 per barrel. Deutsche Bank warned of a potential stagflationary shock if the conflict drags on. Japan’s Nikkei lost 1.6%, South Korea’s Kospi fell 1.2%, and European natural gas prices gained 7.7% for the second day.