The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has adjusted its global economic growth forecast for 2026 to 3.1%, slightly up from the previous 3.0% estimate. Despite this upward revision, the projected growth remains below the 3.5% expansion recorded for 2025. Looking ahead, the IMF anticipates a growth rate of 3.4% in 2027.
In its assessment, the IMF highlighted the role of artificial intelligence (AI) investments in mitigating some economic challenges, such as rising energy prices and geopolitical tensions. However, the benefits of AI are not evenly spread, with the United States and China consuming the majority of AI-related imports, including computer chips. The organization cautioned that potential corrections in AI-dominant stock markets, increasing bond yields, public debt concerns, and cyber threats could pose risks to global financial stability.
The IMF also drew attention to the potential impact of AI on the labor market, estimating that around 40% of jobs globally could be affected by changes in tasks, job quality, or employment levels. This raises important questions about the future of work and the necessary adjustments in various sectors.
On the inflation front, global inflation is expected to reach 4.7% in 2026, before easing to 4.1% in 2027. These forecasts are based on assumptions that oil and gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz will resume by March and that the current high demand for AI-related products will moderate.
Among major economies, the United States is forecast to grow by 2.3% in both 2026 and 2027. Meanwhile, China’s economy is projected to expand by 4.5% this year, and India is expected to continue as the fastest-growing major economy with a 7% growth rate in 2026, slightly down from 7.7% in 2025.
The outlook for emerging and developing economies is more optimistic, with growth anticipated at 3.7% in 2026, accelerating to 4.4% in 2027. However, the Middle East and Central Asia are facing a tougher economic environment, with contractions expected this year before a recovery in 2027.
The IMF urged governments to focus on strengthening public finances and managing rising debt levels, especially as borrowing costs remain high amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. This strategic focus is deemed crucial for maintaining economic stability in the face of evolving global challenges.