In a significant development for the tourism sector, DataGreat, a tourism intelligence service, has unveiled a scenario analysis that evaluates the potential repercussions of a prolonged Iran–Israel–United States conflict on Turkish tourism. This sector ranks as Türkiye’s third-largest export, highlighting its importance to the national economy. Conducted by Alper Tekin, the founder of DataGreat, the analysis utilized the Crisis Impact Simulator, integrating data from the WTTC Economic Impact Report 2025.
The geographical proximity of Türkiye to the conflict zone poses inherent risks, given that six of its top ten tourist source markets, such as Russia, Germany, and the United Kingdom, lie within a 3,000-kilometer radius of the Iran–Israel axis. As tourism fuels over 11 percent of Türkiye’s GDP and provides around three million direct jobs, the potential for disruption is significant. The Crisis Impact Simulator employed by DataGreat does not predict future events but rather applies deterministic scenario rules to data from the WTTC and World Bank. It employs a generative AI layer to offer explanatory narratives, ensuring each numerical claim is sourced and verified, avoiding what Tekin describes as “zero hallucinations.”
The analysis explores three scenarios. The first, a regional escalation, foresees possible disruptions such as airspace closures and sanctions, likely affecting European leisure travel demand, especially from Germany, the UK, and the Netherlands. Business travel from the EU, however, shows higher resilience. The second scenario, a Russian outbound shock, examines the impact of a potential 20 to 35 percent drop in Russian tourists to Türkiye, attributed to sanctions or currency issues, particularly affecting regions like Antalya and Muğla. The third scenario considers the volatility of the Turkish lira against the US dollar, which could temporarily boost dollar-denominated tourism receipts while diminishing domestic leisure spending as local households adjust their budgets.
Tekin emphasizes that the analysis serves as a planning tool rather than a prediction, aimed at helping destination management organizations and tourism operators strategize before geopolitical events unfold. The simulator provides detailed outputs for each scenario, including vulnerabilities, mitigation strategies, and crucial indicators, which are available to accredited media outlets. Additionally, DataGreat’s Risk Radar module offers complimentary insights, evaluating tourism risk across 42 countries weekly.
DataGreat, operated by Solustiq Yazılım ve Yapay Zeka Teknolojileri A.Ş. and based in Edirne, Türkiye, is built on the WTTC Economic Impact Report 2025 dataset. The platform supports tourism stakeholders with tools like the Persona Builder, Risk Radar, Campaign Brief Generator, and the Crisis Impact Simulator, all designed to navigate the complex landscape of global tourism risks and opportunities.